Assessing supply-side ecological product value realization potential in underdeveloped mountain regions

Identifying the supply-side potential for ecological product value realization (EPVR) is important for spatial management in ecologically rich but underdeveloped mountain regions, where ecological conditions and development opportunities vary across elevation gradients. Taking Xinping County, an ecologically rich but underdeveloped mountainous region in Southwest China, as a case study, this study developed an indicator system integrating ecological function importance and development suitability to assess supply-side EPVR potential as a relative ranking index. XGBoost-SHAP was applied to identify factors associated with spatial variation in the assessed potential. Potential scores were combined with elevation-specific suitability coefficients derived using SHAP-based factor weights to construct the Ecological Product Value Realization Index (EPRI) for zoning. Results indicate that EPVR potential generally decreases with increasing elevation, NDVI had the largest SHAP-based relative contribution in the river valley (< 1500 m) and hilly areas (1500–2500 m), whereas transport accessibility dominated in the alpine area (> 2500 m). Water supply also contributed substantially in the river valley and alpine areas. Based on EPRI, three realization zones were delineated: Priority Realization Zone (EPRI > 0.60) focuses on high value specialty agriculture and ecotourism; Potential Enhancement Zone (0.40 to 0.60) prioritizes infrastructure connectivity to scale forest-based economies and agro-product processing; Restricted Development Zone (EPRI < 0.40) emphasizes ecological redline enforcement and carbon sequestration trading. These findings support spatially differentiated management of supply-side EPVR potential, while the feasibility of translating this potential into economic benefits requires further demand-side assessment.