Forecasting ecosystem service values in South China’s fragile mountain regions: a multi-scenario analysis with adaptive land use valuation

Numerous economically underdeveloped and ecologically fragile areas in southern China’s mountainous regions face increasing challenges in achieving sustainable development. A comparative analysis of ecosystem service responses to land use scenarios, incorporating adaptive valuation coefficients, can reveal actionable pathways to reconcile sustainable development and ecological conservation in mountainous regions. In this study, the ecosystem service value (ESV) dynamics in the Hunan–Jiangxi Border Region (HJBR), which is a representative old revolutionary base with a relatively undeveloped economy, were investigated by integrating historical land use data analysis from 2000 to 2020 and adopting patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) modelling. Three policy-responsive scenarios, namely, natural growth (NGS), farmland protection (FPS), and ecological protection (EPS), were systematically developed to project ESV variations for 2030 and 2040. Our analysis revealed that from 2000 to 2020, urban sprawl and water body expansion occurred at the expense of forestland, cultivated land, and grassland, yet yield-driven productivity improvements increased the ESV by 227.30% (equivalent to ¥250.0 billion). By 2040, the NGS achieves the greatest ESV increase (¥189.895 billion) while fully accommodating urban land demand; the FPS yields the smallest ESV increase (¥148.169 billion), with the EPS occupying an intermediate position (¥182.207 billion). Climate regulation and hydrological services dominate ecological functions, collectively exceeding 49% across all the scenarios and periods. By 2040, most service functions exhibit growth trends except for a 0.30% water supply decline under the FPS, whereas the EPS demonstrates balanced development through multidimensional service enhancements. These findings underscore the necessity of integrating ecological safeguards into land use planning frameworks to ensure sustainable regional development.