Exploring the effects of perception factors on evacuation intentions of residents

The evacuation of people under threat is an effective disaster prevention and mitigation measure in response to flash floods and geological hazards, and it is also an essential element of pre-disaster planning. However, the effect of the interactions between perception factors on residents' willingness to evacuate is an urgent problem to be solved. Therefore, this paper introduces risk, stakeholder, and protective action perceptions from the protective action decision model as the main explanatory variables. These three core perceptions are subdivided into affective risk perception, cognitive risk perception, government perception, other-stakeholder perception, resource-related attributes, and hazard-related attributes. A questionnaire survey was conducted from June to July 2023 among residents of mountainous communities in nine villages in three towns in Sichuan Province, China. 359 cross-sectional data were analyzed using structural equation modeling to explore the effects of six perception factors on evacuation intentions. The results of the study showed that: (1) affective risk perception, government perception, other-stakeholder perception, and hazard-related attributes all directly and positively influence residents' intentions to evacuate; (2) cognitive risk perception is mediated by stakeholder and protective action perceptions, which indirectly and positively affect residents' intentions to evacuate. Based on the hypothesized paths, strategies to improve residents' willingness to evacuate are discussed from the perspective of three core perceptions: strengthening disaster risk education, improving residents' cohesion, and building government credibility. The results of this study can provide theoretical support and practical suggestions for emergency management departments to formulate emergency evacuation strategies, which can aid decision-makers in better understanding residents' intentions to evacuate, optimizing evacuation information dissemination pathways, and strengthening disaster risk management capabilities.