Spatiotemporal influence of driving factors on water conservation in underdeveloped plateau regions: a case in the Yellow River Basin of Sichuan, China

The Yellow River Basin in Sichuan Province (YRS) is undergoing severe soil erosion and exacerbated ecological vulnerability, which collectively pose formidable challenges for regional water conservation (WC) and sustainable development. While effectively enhancing WC necessitates a comprehensive understanding of its driving factors and corresponding intervention strategies, existing studies have largely neglected the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of both natural and socio-economic drivers. Therefore, this study explored the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of WC drivers in YRS using multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) models from an eco-hydrological perspective. We discovered that downstream regions, which are more developed, achieved significantly better WC than upstream regions. The results also demonstrated that the influence of temperature and wind speed is consistently dominant and temporally stable due to climate stability, while the influence of vegetation shifted from negative to positive around 2010, likely indicating greater benefits from understory vegetation. Economic growth positively impacted WC in upstream regions but had a negative effect in the more developed downstream regions. These findings highlight the importance of targeted water conservation strategies, including locally appropriate revegetation, optimization of agricultural and economic structures, and the establishment of eco-compensation mechanisms for ecological conservation and sustainable development.