Response of glaciers to future climate change in the Beida River catchment, northeast Tibetan Plateau
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Graphical Abstract
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Abstract
Understanding how future climate change impacts glaciers is crucial to sustainable water supplies and water resource managements. A calibrated degree-day glacier mass balance model and a volume-area scaling approach were coupled to quantitatively assess the effect of future climate change on the ice volume in the Beida River catchment, Northeast Tibetan Plateau. The results show that future mean mass loss of all glaciers will reach to 0.628±0.058, 0.676±0.058 and 0.765±0.074 ×108 m3 yr-1 under RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, with 81%-96.2% ice volume losses by the end of 21st century. Future mass balance tends to be more negative until 2050 under RCP 2.6, until 2060 under RCP 4.5, and until 2100 under RCP 8.5. Glaciers in the catchment are likely experiencing or will soon experience the most intense ice loss, which may lead to negative impact on water resources after the tipping point around 2015-2035. In the RCP 8.5 scenario, the summer mass balance decreases with elevation at the altitudinal belt of 4650~5050 m a.s.l. due to the variation of elevation structure caused by accelerating glaciers shrinkage. Further, the simulations are sensitive to the parameterization scheme of glacier area and air temperature. The projections have the potential to significantly improve our understandings of glacier regime over data-poor regions.
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