Quantitative estimation of hourly precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains based on area-to-point kriging downscaling and satellite-gauge data merging Quantitative estimation of hourly precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains based on area-to-point kriging downscaling and satellite-gauge data merging

最小化 最大化

Vol19 No.1: 58-72

Title】Quantitative estimation of hourly precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains based on area-to-point kriging downscaling and satellite-gauge data merging

Author】LU Xin-yu1,2; CHEN Yuan-yuan3*; TANG Guo-qiang4,5*; WANG Xiu-qin1; LIU Yan1; WEI Ming6

Addresses】1 Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration. Urumqi 830002, China; 2 Central-Asia Research Center of Atmosphere Science, Urumqi 830002, China; 3 College of Environment, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310014, China; 4 University of Saskatchewan Coldwater Lab, Canmore T1W 3G1, Canada; 5 Center for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan S7N 5A2, Canada; 6 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.

Corresponding author】CHEN Yuan-yuan; TANG Guo-qiang

Citation】Lu XY, Chen YY, Tang GQ, et al. (2022) Quantitative estimation of hourly precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains based on area-to-point kriging downscaling and satellite-gauge data merging. Journal of Mountain Science 19(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-021-6901-5

DOI】https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-021-6901-5

Abstract】Precipitation, a basic component of the water cycle, is significantly important for meteorological, climatological and hydrological research. However, accurate estimation on the precipitation remains considerably challenging because of the sparsity of gauge networks and the large spatial variability of precipitation over mountainous regions. Moreover, meteorological stations in mountainous areas are often dispersed and have difficulty in accurately reflecting the intensity and evolution of precipitation events. In this study, we proposed a novel method to produce high-quality, high-resolution precipitation estimates in the Tianshan Mountains, China, based on area-to-point kriging (ATPK) downscaling and a two-step correction, i.e., probability density function matching -optimum interpolation (PDF-OI). We obtained 1-km hourly precipitation data in the Tianshan Mountains by merging estimates from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) product with observations from 1065 meteorological stations in the warm season (May to September) during 2016–2018. The spatial resolution and accuracy of the merged precipitation data greatly increased compared to IMERG. According to a cross-validation with gauged observations, the correlation coefficient (CC), probability of detection (POD) and critical success index (CSI) increased from 0.30, 0.50 and 0.24 for IMERG to 0.63, 0.65 and 0.38, respectively, for the merged estimates, and the root mean squared error (RMSE), mean error (ME) and false alarm ratio (FAR) decreased from 0.46 to 0.38 mm/h, 0.06 to 0.05 mm/h and 0.69 to 0.52, respectively. The proposed method will be useful for developing high-resolution precipitation estimates in mountainous areas such as central Asia and the Belt and Road Initiative regions.

Keywords】Hourly precipitation; Downscaling; merging; Tianshan Mountains; IMERG; Area-to-point kriging (ATPK)