Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach

最小化 最大化

Vol18 No.5: 1235-1245

Title】Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach

Author】Emad A. FARAHAT1*; Aliaa M. REFAAT2

Addresses】1 Botany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, Helwan University, Cairo 11795, Egypt; 2 Botany Department, Faculty of Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11566, Egypt

Corresponding author】Emad A. FARAHAT

Citation】FarahatEA, RefaatAM (2021) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori - A conservation approach. Journal of Mountain Science 18(5). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6560-y

DOI】https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6560-y

Abstract】Climate change will affect the geographic distribution and richness of species at different spatial and temporal scales. We applied Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict the potential influence of climatic change on the current and future distribution of the important mountainous tree species Moringa peregrina (Forssk.) Fiori. The Maxent model performed better than random modelsfor the species with the training and test AUC (Area Under the receiver-operating characteristic Curve)values of 0.96 and 0.90, respectively. Jackknife test and response curves showed that the distribution of the species negatively correlates with higher altitudes and precipitation in October and November. Moreover, it positively correlates with the total annual precipitation and precipitation in January. Under current and future climatic conditions, our model predicted habitat gains for M. peregrina towards the coastal northern and southern limits of its distribution. The potentially suitable habitats, under future climate projections, are currently characterized by elevations of <1000 m a.s.l. and total annual precipitation of 80-225 mm/year. Moderate and high potential habitat suitability will increase by 5.6%-6% and 2.1%-2.3%, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5scenario,respectively. The results indicated that the habitat suitability of M. peregrina would increase with increasing climate warming, particularly under RCP2.6scenario. We recommend sustainable conservation and cultivation of Moringa peregrina in its current habitats along the Red Sea mountains.

Keywords】Climate change; Conservation; MaxEnt; Mountains; Moringa peregrina; Arid lands