Water resources response and prediction under climate change in Tao'er River Basin, Northeast China Water resources response and prediction under climate change in Tao'er River Basin, Northeast China

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Vol18 No.10: 2635-2645

Title】Water resources response and prediction under climate change in Tao'er River Basin, Northeast China

Author】SUN Jia-qi1,2,3*; LI Hong-yan2; WANG Xiao-jun3,4; SHAHID Shamsuddin5

Addresses】1 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2 Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China; 3 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China; 4 Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China; 5 School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310, Johor Bahru, Malaysia

Corresponding author】SUN Jia-qi

Citation】Sun JQ, Li HY, Wang XJ, Shahid S (2021) Water resources response and prediction under climate change in Tao'er River Basin, Northeast China. Journal of Mountain Science 18(10). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6635-9

DOI】https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6635-9

Abstract】Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage, droughts and floods in northeast China. A study has been conducted to quantify the influence of climate change on the hydrologic process in the Tao'er River Basin (TRB), one of the most prominent regions in northeast China for water contradiction. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated with observed land use and hydro-climatic data and then employed for runoff simulations at upper, middle and lower reaches of the river basin for different climate change scenarios. The results showed that a gradual increase in temperature and decrease in annual precipitation in the basin was projected for the period 2020-2050 for both representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The climate changes would cause a decrease in annual average runoff at basin outlet by 12 and 23 million m3 for RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The future runoff in the upstream and midstream of the basin during 2020-2050 would be -10.8% and
-12.1% lower than the observed runoff compared to the base period for RCP4.5, while those would be -5.3% and -10.7% lower for RCP8.5. The future runoff will decrease at three hydrology stations for the assumed future climate scenarios. The results can help us understand the future temperature and precipitation trends and the hydrological cycle process under different climate change scenarios, and provide the basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources under the influence of future climate change in the TRB.

Keywords】Hydrological process simulation; Climate change; Climate scenario model; SWAT model; Tao'er River Basin