Assessing resource vulnerability quadrants under changing precipitation trends in Uttarakhand, Central Himalayan region Assessing resource vulnerability quadrants under changing precipitation trends in Uttarakhand, Central Himalayan region

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Vol18 No.10: 2722-2741

Title】Assessing resource vulnerability quadrants under changing precipitation trends in Uttarakhand, Central Himalayan region

Author】Ayushi VIJHANI1; Vinay Shankar Prasad SINHA1; Mini GOVINDAN2

Addresses】1 Department of Natural Resources, TERI School of Advanced Studies, 10 Institutional Area, Vasant Kunj New Delhi 110070, India; 2 The Energy and Resources Institute, India Habitat Centre, New Delhi 110003, India

Corresponding author】Vinay Shankar Prasad SINHA

Citation】Vijhani A, Sinha VSP, Govindan M (2021) Assessing resource vulnerability quadrants under changing precipitation trends in Uttarakhand, Central Himalayan region, India. Journal of Mountain Science 18(10). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-021-6856-6

DOI】https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-021-6856-6

Abstract】The Central Himalayan region is vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and characterized by regional climatic conditions. The livelihood of the mountain communities across the Himalaya is at risk owing to the consequences of variable precipitation patterns. There exists limited empirical research on precipitation variability due to inadequate hydro-meteorological stations at high-altitude regions. The study uses a novel methodology which integrates precipitation variability with resource sensitivity over the three verticals of Central Himalaya: Himadri, Himachal and Shivaliks and across four major river basins: Yamuna, Upper Ganga, Ghaghar and Ramganga. The magnitude of the significant precipitation trends was estimated through time series analysis at a 95% confidence interval. To assess the sensitivity of natural resources (forest, water and land) and human resources, fourteen mountain-specific indicators were identified which captured resource index using data standardization and principal component analysis. Sen's slope and Resource index were plotted in a 2D Cartesian coordinate to draw precipitation-resource quadrants with their effective coverage area: High Precipitation and Scarce Resources (35.92%); Low Precipitation and Abundant Resources (30.10%); Low Precipitation and Scarce Resources (22.33%) and High Precipitation and Abundant Resources (11.65%). This helped in developing quadrant-specific adaptation strategies under regional variability of precipitation. The methodology and the research findings will certainly assist water experts, resource managers and policymakers to strengthen adaptive capacity and improve the resilience of vulnerable communities across Himalaya.

Keywords】Climate Change; Trend analysis; Resource-quadrant; Vulnerability; Adaptation; Central Himalaya