Effectiveness analysis of the prediction of regional debris flow susceptibility in post-earthquake and drought site Effectiveness analysis of the prediction of regional debris flow susceptibility in post-earthquake and drought site

最小化 最大化

Vol17 No.2: 329-339

【Title】Effectiveness analysis of the prediction of regional debris flow susceptibility in post-earthquake and drought site

【Author】CHEN Ning-sheng1*; ZHANG Yong1,2; TIAN Shu-feng1,2; DENG Ming-feng1,2; WANG Tao1; LIU Li-hong1; LIU Mei1,2; HU Gui-sheng1

Addresses】1 Key of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China; 2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10049, China

Corresponding author】CHEN Ning-sheng

Citation】Chen NS, Zhang Y, Tian SF, et al. (2020)Effectiveness analysis of the prediction of regional debris flow susceptibility in post-earthquake and drought site. Journal of Mountain Science 17(2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-019-5684-4

DOI】https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-019-5684-4

Abstract】Debris-flow disasters occurred frequently after theMw 8.0Wenchuan earthquakeon 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province, China. Based on historical accounts of debris-flow disaster events, it found that debris flow occurrence is closely related to the impact of earthquakes and droughts, because earthquake-drought activities can increase the loose solid materials, which can transform into debris flows under the effect of rainstorms. Based on the analysis of historical earthquake activity (frequency, magnitude and location), drought indexes and the trend of climate change (amount of rainfall), a prediction method was established, and the regional debris flow susceptibility waspredicted. Furthermore, in adebris flow-susceptible site, effective warning and monitoring are essential not only from an economic point of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. The advantages of the prediction and early monitoring include (1) the acquired results beingsent to the central government for policy making;(2)livesand property in mountainous areascan be protected, such as the 570 residents in the Aizi valley, who evacuated successfully before debris flows in 2012; (3) guiding the government to identify the areas of disasters and the preparation for disaster prevention and mitigation, such as predicting disasters in high-risk areas in the period 2012-2017, helpingthe government to recognize the development trend of disasters; (4) the quantitative prediction of regional debris-flow susceptibility, such as after the Wenchuan earthquake, can promote scientific and sustainable development and socioeconomic planning in earthquake-struck areas.

Keywords】Regional debris flow;Susceptibility; Predictionmodel;Wenchuan earthquake;Drought;Southwest China