Debris flow susceptibility and propagation assessment in West Koyulhisar, Turkey Debris flow susceptibility and propagation assessment in West Koyulhisar, Turkey

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Vol17 No.11: 2611-2623

Title】Debris flow susceptibility and propagation assessment in West Koyulhisar, Turkey

Author】Ali POLAT 1*, Dursun ERİK2

Addresses】1 Provincial Directorate of Disaster and Emergency, Sivas 58050, Turkey; 2 Republic of Turkey General Directorate of Highway, 16. District, Sivas 58049, Turkey

Corresponding author】Ali POLAT

Citation】Polat A, Erik D (2020) Debris flow susceptibility and propagation assessment in West Koyulhisar, Turkey. Journal of Mountain Science 17(11). https://doi.org/10.1007s11629-020-6261-6

DOI】https://doi.org/10.1007s11629-020-6261-6

Abstract】Turkey is highly prone to landslides because of the geological and geographic location. The study area, which is located in a tectonically active region, has been significantly affected by mass movements. Flow type landslides are frequently observed due to this location. This study aims at  determiningthe source area and propagation of debris flows in the study area. We used the heuristic methodtoextract source areas of debris flow, and then used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to assess the performance of the method, and finallycalculatedtheArea under curve (AUC) valuesbeing83.64% and 80.39% for the success rate and prediction rate, respectively. We calculated potential propagation area and runout distancewithFlow-R software. In conclusion, the obtained results (susceptibility map, propagation and runout distance) are very important for decision-makers at the region located on an active fault zone, which is highly prone to natural disasters. The outputs of this study could be used in site selection studies, designing erosion prevention systems and protecting existing human-made structures.

Keywords】Koyulhisar;Debris flow; Flowpath assessment; Heuristic method; Landslide susceptibility mapping; Geographical Information System (GIS)