A system dynamics model for billion trees tsunami afforestation project of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan: Model application to afforestation activities A system dynamics model for billion trees tsunami afforestation project of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan: Model application to afforestation activities

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Vol16 No.11: 2640-2653

Title】A system dynamics model for billion trees tsunami afforestation project of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan: Model application to afforestation activities

Author】Naila NAZIR1*; Aqsa FAROOQ2; Sajjad AHMAD JAN1; Aftab AHMAD3

Addresses】1 Department of Economics, University of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 25000, Pakistan; 2 Department of Economics, Edwardes College, Peshawar Saddar 25000, Pakistan; 3 Global Change Impact Study Center, Ministry of Climate Change, 10-Mauve Area, G-8/1, Islamabad, Pakistan

Corresponding author】Naila NAZIR

Citation】Nazir N, Farooq A, Ahmad Jan S, Ahmad A (2019) A system dynamics model for billion trees tsunami afforestation project of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan: Model application to afforestation activities. Journal of Mountain Science 16(11). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-5076-1

DOI】https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-5076-1

Abstract】As part of the global effort to plant billion trees, an afforestation project is launched in Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province to conserve existing forests and to increase area under forest cover. The present study is designed to build a Systems' model by incorporating major activities of the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project (BTTAP) with special focus on afforestation activities to estimate the growth in forest area of KP. Availability of complete dataset was a challenge. To fix the model, the raw data taken from the project office has been utilized. Planning  Commission Form 1- Phase I & II helped us with additional information. We relied on the data available for one and half period of the project as rest of the data is subject to the completion of the project. Our results show that the project target to enhance area under forest differs from the target to afforest area under the project. The system dynamics' model projection shows that the forest area of KP would be 23.59 million hectares at the end of the BTTA project, thus having an increase of 3.29% instead of 2% that has been initially proposed. However, the results show that the progress to meet the target in some afforestation classes is slow as compared to other categories. Farm forestry, plantation on communal lands and owners' plantation need special focus of the authority. Deforestation would affect 0.02 million hectares area of the project. The model under study may be used as a reference model that can be replicated to other areas where billion tree campaigns are going on.

Keywords】Billion trees project; Afforestation; System dynamic model; Forest area; Deforestation; Pakistan