Vol16 No.7: 1702-1714
【Title】Quantitative evaluation of Tibet’s resource and environmental carrying capacity
【Author】WANG Liang1,2,3; LIU Hui1,2,4*
【Addresses】1 Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3 Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 4 College of Resource and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
【Corresponding author】LIU Hui
【Citation】Wang L , Liu H (2019) Quantitative evaluation of Tibet’s resource and environmental carrying capacity. Journal of Mountain Science 16(7). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-5148-2
【Abstract】This study identifies the carrying state and value of Tibet’s resource and environmental carrying capacity. A new theoretical framework is proposed for exploring the resource and environmental carrying capacity based on two perspectives of “growth limit” and “stability of Human-Earth relationship system”. On this basis, an ideal growth model that accords with the “short board” effect is established to predict the population limitation. Analytical results show that the holistic state of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Tibet is in jeopardy. From 2010 to 2016, Tibet’s carrying state continued to decline, moreover, the negative forces still overwhelm the positive forces. Although the resource reserves still have room for more population, the environmental capacity and ecological capacity have been overloaded. Meanwhile, the Human-Earth relationship system is in an unstable stage. Three scenarios that respond to different socioeconomic developments are implemented to predict the population limitation of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Tibet; thus, authors argue that Tibet should keep its population size within 4 million around 2025. This research will provide reference for sustainable development and resources and environmental conservation in Tibet.
【Keywords】Population limitation; Resources carrying capacity; Environmental carrying capacity; Short board effect; Tibet