Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru

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Vol15 No.2: 264-279

Title】Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru

Author】Sly C. WONGCHUIG1; Carlos R. MELLO2*; Sin C. CHOU3

Addresses】1 Hydraulics Institute Research, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil; 2 Soil and Water Engineering, Federal University of Lavras, Lavras, 37200-000, MG, Brazil; 3 Brazilian Weather Research and Forecast, National Spatial Research Institute, (INPE), Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil

Corresponding author】crmello@deg.ufla.br

Citation】Wongchuig SC, Mello CR, Chou SC (2018) Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru. Journal of Mountain Science 15(2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-017-4418-8

DOI】https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-017-4418-8

Abstract】Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessedthe projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, whichis important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. Weassumedthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B greenhouse gas emission scenarioand simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index (MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.

Keywords】Precipitation;Evaporation;Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI);Modified Fournier Index (MFI); Climate change; Tropical Andes