Projectionof future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin, Karakoram Range(Pakistan) using HBV hydrological model Projectionof future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin, Karakoram Range(Pakistan) using HBV hydrological model

最小化 最大化

Vol15 No.10: 2218-2235

Title】Projectionof future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin, Karakoram Range(Pakistan) using HBV hydrological model

Author】Ayaz Fateh ALI1,2; XIAO Cun-de3*; ZHANG Xiao-peng1,2; Muhammad ADNAN1,2; Mudassar IQBAL2,4; Garee KHAN5

Addresses】1 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3 State Key Laboratory of Land Surface and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 4 Key Laboratory of land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 5 Department of Earth Sciences, Karakoram International University, Gilgit 15100, Pakistan

Corresponding author】XIAO Cun-de

Citation】ALI AF, Xiao CD, Zhang XP, et al. (2018) Projection of future streamflow of the Hunza River Basin, Karakoram Range (Pakistan) using HBV hydrological model. Journal of Mountain Science 15(10). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-4907-4

DOI】https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-018-4907-4

Abstract】Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdeling(HBV) Light model was used to evaluate the performance of the model in response to climate change in the snowy and glaciated catchment area of Hunza River Basin.The studyaimedto understand the temporal variation of streamflow of Hunza River and its contribution to Indus River System (IRS). HBV model performed fairly well both during calibration (R2=0.87, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=-0.36) and validation (R2=0.86, Reff=0.83, PBIAS=-13.58) periods on daily time scale in the Hunza River Basin. Model performed better on monthly time scale with slightly underestimated low flows period during both calibration (R2=0.94, Reff=0.88, PBIAS=0.47) and validation (R2=0.92, Reff=0.85, PBIAS=15.83) periods. Simulated streamflow analysis from 1995-2010 unveiled that the average percentage contribution of snow, rain and glacier melt to the streamflow of Hunza River is about 16.5%, 19.4% and 64% respectively. In addition, the HBV-Light model performance was also evaluated for prediction of future streamflow in the Hunza River using future projected data of three General Circulation Model (GCMs) i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, and MIROC-ESM under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and predictions were made over three time periods,2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, using 1980-2010 as the control period. Overall projected climate results reveal that temperature and precipitation are the most sensitive parameters to the streamflow of Hunza River. MIROC-ESM predicted the highest increase in the future streamflow of the Hunza River due to increase in temperature and precipitation under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios from 2010-2099 while predicted slight increase in the streamflow under RCP2.6 during the start and end of the 21th century. However, BCC-CSM1.1 predicted decrease in the streamflow under RCP8.5 due to decrease in temperature and precipitation from 2010-2099. However, CanESM2 predicted 22%-88% increase in the streamflow under RCP4.5 from 2010-2099. The results of this study could be useful for decision making and effective future strategic plans for water management and their sustainability in the region.

【Keywords】HBV Light model; Hydrological modeling; Hunza River; Upper Indus Basin; Snow and glacier-melt