Tradeoff between the number of firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts in the Republic of Korea Tradeoff between the number of firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts in the Republic of Korea

最小化 最大化

Vol15 No.1: 144-155

Title】Tradeoff between the number of firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts in the Republic of Korea

Author】Yohan LEE1; Byungdoo LEE2*

Addresses】1 Department of Saemaul Studies and International Development, Yeungnam University, Gyeongsan, Gyeongbuk 38541, Republic of Korea; 2 National Institute of Forest Science, Hoegiro 57, Dongdamun-gu, Seoul, 02455 Republic of Korea

Corresponding author】byungdoo@forest.go.kr

Citation】Lee YH, Lee BD (2018) Tradeoff between the number of firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts in the Republic of Korea. Journal of Mountain Science 15(1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-016-4264-0

DOI】https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-016-4264-0

Abstract】This study explores the tradeoff relationship between the number of initial attack firefighting resources and the level of fire ignition prevention efforts mitigating the probability of human-made fires in the Republic of Korea, where most fires are caused by human activities. To examine this tradeoff relationship, we develop a hybrid model that combines a robust optimization model with a stochastic simulation model. The robust optimization minimizes the expected number of fires not receiving a pre-defined response, such as the number of firefighting resources that must arrive at the fire within half an hour, subject to budget constraints and uncertainty about the daily number and location of fires. The simulation model produces a set of fire scenarios in which a combination of number, location, ignition time, and intensity of fires occur. Results show that fire ignition prevention is as cost-effective as initial attack firefighting resources given the current budget in the Republic of Korea for reducing the expected number of fires not covered by the pre-defined response. The mixed policy of fire suppression and fire prevention may produce some gains in efficiency relative to the dominant policy of strong fire suppression strategies.

Keywords】Tradeoff; Robust optimization; Fire suppression; Fire ignition prevention