Rapid Susceptibility Mapping of Co-seismic Landslides Triggered by the 2013 Lushan Earthquake Using the Regression Model Developed Rapid Susceptibility Mapping of Co-seismic Landslides Triggered by the 2013 Lushan Earthquake Using the Regression Model Developed

最小化 最大化

Vol10 No.5: 699-715

TitleRapid Susceptibility Mapping of Co-seismic Landslides Triggered by the 2013 Lushan Earthquake Using the Regression Model Developed for the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

AuthorLI Wei-le*, HUANG Run-qiu, XU Qiang, TANG Chuan

AddressesState key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China

Corresponding authorwhylwl01@163.com

CitationLI Wei-le, HUANG Run-qiu, XU Qiang, TANG Chuan (2013) Rapid Susceptibility Mapping of Co-seismic Landslides Triggered by the 2013 Lushan Earthquake Using the Regression Model Developed for the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake. Journal Of Mountain Science 10(5):699-715. DOI: 10.1007/s11629-013-2786-2

DOI10.1007/s11629-013-2786-2

AbstractThe primary objective of landslide susceptibility mapping is the prediction of potential landslides in landslide-prone areas. The predictive power of a landslide susceptibility mapping model could be tested in an adjacent area of similar geo-environmental conditions to find out the reliability. Both the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the 2013 Lushan Earthquake occurred in the Longmen Mountain seismic zone, with similar topographical and geological conditions. The two earthquakes are both featured by thrust fault and similar seismic mechanism. This paper adopted the susceptibility mapping model of co-seismic landslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquake to predict the spatial distribution of landslides induced by Lushan earthquake. Six influencing parameters were taken into consideration: distance from the seismic fault, slope gradient, lithology, distance from drainage, elevation and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). The preliminary results suggested that the zones with high susceptibility of co-seismic landslides were mainly distributed in the mountainousareas of Lushan, Baoxing and Tianquan counties. The co-seismic landslide susceptibility map was completed in two days after the quake and sent to the field investigators to provide guidance for rescue and relief work. The predictive power of the susceptibility map was validated by ROC curve analysis method using 2037 co-seismic landslides in the epicenter area. The AUC value of 0.710 indicated that the susceptibility model derived from Wenchuan Earthquake landslides showed good accuracy in predicting the landslides triggered by Lushan earthquake.

KeywordsLushan earthquake; Landslide; Susceptibility mapping; Logistical regression