Landslide susceptibility assessment using the certainty factor and analytic hierarchy process Landslide susceptibility assessment using the certainty factor and analytic hierarchy process

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Vol14 No.5: 906-925

Title】Landslide susceptibility assessment using the certainty factor and analytic hierarchy process

Author】FAN Wen*; WEI Xin-sheng; CAO Yan-bo; ZHENG Bin

Addresses】Department of Geological Engineering, Chang'an University, Yanta Road, Xi'an 710054, China

Corresponding author】fanwen@chd.edu.cn

Citation】Fan W, Wei XS, Cao YB, Zheng B (2017) Landslide susceptibility assessment using the certainty factor and analytic hierarchy process. Journal of Mountain Science 14(5). DOI: 10.1007/s11629-016-4068-2

DOI】10.1007/s11629-016-4068-2

Abstract】A new approach combining the certainty factor (CF) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods was proposed to assess landslide susceptibility in the Ziyang district, which is situated in the Qin-Ba Mountain region, China. Landslide inventory datawere collected based on field investigations and remote sensing interpretations. Atotal of 791 landslides were identified. Atotal of 633 landslides were randomly selected from this data setas the training set, and the remaining landslides were used for validation as the test set. Nine factors, including the slope angle, slope aspect, slope curvature, lithology, distance to faults, distance to streams, precipitation, road network intensity degree and land use were chosen as the landslide causal factors for further susceptibility assessment. The weight of each factor and its subclass were calculated by AHP and CF methods. Landslide susceptibility was compared between the bivariate statistical method and the proposed CF-AHP method. The results indicate that the distance to streams, distance to faults and lithology are the most dominant causal factors associated with landslides. The susceptibility zonation was categorized into five classes of landslide susceptibility, i.e., very high, high, moderate, low and very low level. Lastly, the relative operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to validate the accuracy of the new approach, and the result showed a satisfactory prediction rate of 78.3%, compared to 69.2% obtained with the landslide susceptibility index method.  The results indicate that the CF-AHP combined method is more appropriate for assessing the landslide susceptibility in this area.

Keywords】Ziyang district; Landslide; Certainty factor; Analytic hierarchy process; Susceptibility assessment; ArcGIS