MA Jie, CHU Lijuan, SUN Jing, WANG Shenglan, GE Miao, DENG Li. 2024: Health risk assessment of trace metal(loid)s in agricultural soils based on Monte Carlo simulation coupled with positive matrix factorization model in Chongqing, southwest China. Journal of Mountain Science, 21(1): 100-112. DOI: 10.1007/s11629-023-8304-2
Citation: MA Jie, CHU Lijuan, SUN Jing, WANG Shenglan, GE Miao, DENG Li. 2024: Health risk assessment of trace metal(loid)s in agricultural soils based on Monte Carlo simulation coupled with positive matrix factorization model in Chongqing, southwest China. Journal of Mountain Science, 21(1): 100-112. DOI: 10.1007/s11629-023-8304-2

Health risk assessment of trace metal(loid)s in agricultural soils based on Monte Carlo simulation coupled with positive matrix factorization model in Chongqing, southwest China

  • This study aimed to investigate the pollution characteristics, source apportionment, and health risks associated with trace metal(loid)s (TMs) in the major agricultural producing areas in Chongqing, China. We analyzed the source apportionment and assessed the health risk of TMs in agricultural soils by using positive matrix factorization (PMF) model and health risk assessment (HRA) model based on Monte Carlo simulation. Meanwhile, we combined PMF and HRA models to explore the health risks of TMs in agricultural soils by different pollution sources to determine the priority control factors. Results showed that the average contents of cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), lead (Pb), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn) in the soil were found to be 0.26, 5.93, 27.14, 61.32, 23.81, 32.45, and 78.65 mg/kg, respectively. Spatial analysis and source apportionment analysis revealed that urban and industrial sources, agricultural sources, and natural sources accounted for 33.0%, 27.7%, and 39.3% of TM accumulation in the soil, respectively. In the HRA model based on Monte Carlo simulation, non-carcinogenic risks were deemed negligible (hazard index < 1), the carcinogenic risks were at acceptable level (10-6 < total carcinogenic risk ≤ 10-4), with higher risks observed for children compared to adults. The relationship between TMs, their sources, and health risks indicated that urban and industrial sources were primarily associated with As, contributing to 75.1% of carcinogenic risks and 55.7% of non-carcinogenic risks, making them the primary control factors. Meanwhile, agricultural sources were primarily linked to Cd and Pb, contributing to 13.1% of carcinogenic risks and 21.8% of non-carcinogenic risks, designating them as secondary control factors.
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